Beers, Mates, and the Quiet Comeback of 2026

Written by Keiran Hathorn, Director, Big Wave Digital Recruitment

Last week I found myself doing something profoundly Australian, and mildly philosophical, at the same time.

A beer with two old mates, Felix and Nick, at the Paddo Inn. A familiar pub growing up in Paddo, the kind of place where the floorboards have absorbed more life decisions than any career coach ever will.

Somewhere between the second round and the usual “so, what is everyone doing this year?” chat, it hit me that 2026 already feels different.

Not “everything is fixed and we have all made it” different. More like the air has shifted, the zeitgeist has stopped sulking, and the market has remembered what forward motion feels like.

Employers I talk to are back in build mode. Candidates are moving again, cautiously, but with more intent. And while we are not pretending the last few years were a picnic, there is a buoyancy in conversations that has been missing.

The official stats say the same thing, with a little nuance

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported job vacancies at 326,700 in the three months to November 2025, and noted vacancies were 31.0% lower than the peak in May 2022. Early to mid 2022 was the last time things were truly booming in that “everyone is hiring and nobody can hire fast enough” way.

Now, vacancies are off that peak, but they are still meaningfully elevated. The ABS also reported the unemployment rate was steady at 4.3% in November 2025. So we are not talking about a labour market that has fallen asleep. We are talking about a market that has cooled from peak madness, but still has real demand underneath it.

And here’s a key texture that a lot of people felt over the last 12 to 18 months: for many businesses, hiring wasn’t “growth hiring” at all. It was the grind of backfilling. Someone left, a gap opened, a role had to be replaced just to keep the lights on. That replacement-driven cycle can make the market feel busy and flat at the same time.

The phrase that stuck: “26, lay some bricks”

Back at the Paddo Inn, as the conversation drifted from holidays to work to life to the weirdness of time, Felix dropped a line that made us laugh and then, annoyingly, made sense.

“26, lay some bricks.”

At first it sounded like something you would see printed on a novelty tea towel. But the longer you sit with it, the more it nails what a lot of people and businesses are actually trying to do this year.

Not chase hype. Not pretend everything is perfect. Just build.

Build capability. Build confidence. Build teams. Build skills. Build resilience. Brick by brick, because the best careers and the best businesses are almost always compounding projects, not lightning strikes.

Mark Twain had a line that fits perfectly here:

“The secret of getting ahead is getting started.”
Mark Twain

That is the brick mindset. Not glamour, but momentum. Not hype, but foundations.

Why 2025 felt hard, and why 2026 feels lighter

Let’s not rewrite history. 2025 certainly had some inherent challenges.

Some were existential, like the big question hanging over so many industries: where does AI fit, and what does it do to jobs, careers, and identity when machines can suddenly do things that used to be uniquely human?

Some were more about the value of money and the weight of debt. Interest rates have been high, and that changes behaviour. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cash rate target was 3.60% as of 10 December 2025.

The RBA also noted in its November 2025 Statement on Monetary Policy that scheduled principal and interest mortgage payments fell to 9.8% of household disposable income in the September quarter, but still remained high relative to historical averages.

That matters, because households under pressure do not spend the same way. Businesses notice. Confidence becomes cautious. Hiring slows, or becomes extremely selective.

So when I say 2026 feels buoyant, I do not mean “everything is easy now”. I mean the mood is shifting from survival mode to foundation mode. Companies are still prudent, but they are building again.

And again, that “replacement vs growth” detail matters. For a lot of organisations, the past year or so was less about expanding teams and more about maintaining them. Hiring was often about continuity: replacing a key marketer who resigned, filling an engineer seat that went quiet, keeping a project from stalling. Genuine “net new headcount” growth was the exception rather than the rule for many businesses.

Another tell: job ads are down, but still high historically

Jobs and Skills Australia reported online job advertisements at 204,500 in November 2025, down 1.3% for the month, and down 7.2% over the year, while also noting ads are at high levels historically.

This is the part people miss when they doom scroll headlines.

Yes, conditions have eased from the peak. But “eased from peak” does not mean “dead”. It means the market is more rational than it was during the most mercurial parts of the cycle.

A quick detour to ANU, and why this is weirdly relevant

I studied pre-Socratic philosophy back at ANU, and yes, I lived at Bruce Hall. Which means I am genetically incapable of ignoring big questions, even in a pub.

Right now the job market feels like a liminal period. An in between space where the rules are shifting, but not everyone has agreed on the new rules yet.

The “AI question” is a perfect example. Some people are convinced AI replaces everything. Others think it changes nothing. Both takes are usually wrong.

The more accurate take is the boring one: AI changes a lot of tasks, and the people and companies who adapt will do better.

The RBA published a Bulletin article in November 2025 that cited estimates for Australia suggesting around 4% of the workforce is highly exposed to AI automation, while around 21% has medium to high exposure, and importantly, that “exposed” does not automatically mean replaced.

That lines up with what we are seeing on the ground. AI is not just a job killer. It is a workflow reshaper. It is a capability amplifier. It is also, occasionally, a nonsense generator with the confidence of a Year 10 debating captain.

Socrates would have loved this era, because it forces us to interrogate what we mean by “skill”, “value”, and “work”.

“The unexamined life is not worth living.”
Socrates

In career terms, the unexamined career is not worth living either. If you do not stop to examine your assumptions and upgrade your skills, the market will do it for you.

The real reason 2026 feels buoyant: hiring is getting more intentional

Here is what feels different from the last big boom.

In early to mid 2022, hiring was often frantic. Companies were sprinting, sometimes without a map. Candidates were juggling offers. Everyone was exhausted and exhilarated.

In 2026, the best employers are hiring with more intent.

That is a good thing.

It means roles are being defined better. It means teams are being built around outcomes. It means leaders are thinking about capability, not just headcount.

It also means candidates who can demonstrate impact, not just activity, are going to win.

And it means we might be moving from that long stretch of replacement-heavy hiring into something healthier: a little more genuine investment, more net new roles, more structured growth. Not across every business, not all at once, but enough that you can feel the shift.

What “laying bricks” looks like for employers in 2026

If you are a company hiring Digital Marketing, Tech, or AI talent this year, here are the bricks that matter.

Brick 1: Write roles like you understand the work

A role description that says “must be strategic and hands on” is not a strategy. It is a cry for help.

Instead, define success.

What does good look like at 90 days? 180 days? 12 months?

Digital Marketing examples:

• Improve conversion rate through structured experimentation

• Build lifecycle automation that reduces churn

• Establish clean measurement and attribution so decisions are not made on vibes

Tech examples:

• Reduce page load times and error rates

• Ship a new feature set with reliable testing and observability

• Modernise legacy safely without detonating production every second Thursday

AI examples:

• Identify use cases that improve quality, not just cost

• Build evaluation habits so outputs are trustworthy

• Create guardrails around data handling and risk

Clarity is not corporate. Clarity is kindness.

Brick 2: Build teams with interlocking skills, not mythical unicorns

In 2026, the best hires are often heterodox profiles. People with combinations that make them unusually effective.

A marketer who understands data and customer journeys.
An engineer who can communicate with humans.
An AI practitioner who respects evaluation and governance.
A product leader who can run experiments instead of just talking about them.

You do not need everyone to be everything. You need a team where the strengths interlock.

Brick 3: Speed up decisions, not recklessness

The strongest candidates do not wait around forever.

If your hiring process feels like a mini series, you will lose good people. Strip it back:

• Decide what is non negotiable

• Decide what can be learned

• Interview for the actual work, not trivia

• Make decisions quickly when you find quality

Speed is not recklessness. Speed is respect.

Brick 4: Treat AI like a workflow shift, not a software purchase

AI is not just “buy tool, win future”.

Australian businesses are investing heavily. The ABS reported businesses invested $668.3 million into AI R and D in 2023 to 24, compared with $276.3 million in 2021 to 22, and described this as AI becoming the fastest growing area for business R and D.

Money is flowing because capability is shifting.

So if you want to lay bricks here, think enablement:

• Train teams to use AI responsibly

• Establish data boundaries

• Build evaluation habits

• Create a culture of shared learning

AI makes fast teams faster. It also makes sloppy teams confidently wrong.

What “laying bricks” looks like for candidates in 2026

If you are a candidate in digital, tech, or AI, the temptation is to chase a title. But the smarter play in this market is to build capability that travels with you.

Brick 1: Show outcomes, not responsibilities

Employers are increasingly perspicacious about the difference between “did things” and “drove impact”.

If you are in marketing, show baseline, change, result.
If you are in tech, show what you shipped, improved, and how you measured it.
If you are in AI, show how you evaluated outputs and integrated AI into real workflows.

Brick 2: Learn the modern basics, then go deeper

You do not need to learn every new thing. But you do need to be credible in what your market values.

On the engineering side, modern stacks like Next.js, React.js, TypeScript and Node.js are common because they support speed and maintainability.

On the marketing side, measurement, experimentation, lifecycle, and customer journey thinking are antifragile. Tools change, but those foundations stay relevant.

Brick 3: Become AI fluent without becoming AI cringe

AI fluency is quickly becoming normal.

The RBA’s Bulletin article makes the point that AI exposure does not automatically mean replacement. It means tasks shift, workflows change, and people who can work alongside AI become more valuable.

So be able to say:

• Here is how I use AI to increase throughput

• Here is how I validate the output

• Here is how I handle data safely

• Here is how I improved quality, not just speed

Small joke, but true: if your resume says “AI expert” and you cannot explain what evaluation means, the interview will feel longer than a flight to Europe with a screaming baby and no headphones.

Brick 4: Choose momentum over perfection

Careers are built in iterations. It is fine to take a role that is not perfect if it lays strong bricks for the next move.

Contracting is still a meaningful part of the Australian labour market, and project work can accelerate learning if you choose well. The key is direction, not perfection.

Vienna is growing, and Japan is the dream

Most of my day to day is anchored in Sydney and the Australian market, but 2026 also feels like an outward year.

Vienna recruitment is growing for Big Wave Digital, steadily and seriously. It is not a side quest anymore. It feels like a real second chapter.

And Japan, one day, is the dream. Not because it is trendy, but because it is a place where craft, long term thinking, and technology can coexist beautifully. For now it is a light hearted ambition, but all ambitions start as ideas before they become bricks.

Oscar Wilde captured that tension perfectly:

“We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.”
Oscar Wilde

We can acknowledge the challenges of the last few years while still choosing to build something better.

The 2026 mindset: build like you mean it

Here is what I think is happening beneath the numbers and the noise.

The market is not returning to peak mania. It is returning to something healthier. A more salubrious kind of demand where capability is prized, and where leaders are willing to invest again, but with eyes open.

Job vacancies are down from the May 2022 peak, but still substantial.
Unemployment remains low by historical standards.
Job ads have eased, but remain high historically.
AI investment is accelerating.
And the official research framing is not “replacement everywhere”, it is “exposure and augmentation across many tasks”.

So what do you do with that?

You lay bricks.

You define roles properly. You hire with intent. You build teams that can learn. You invest in AI literacy without losing human judgement. You design work that makes people better, not just busier.

And if you are a candidate, you pick a direction, stack skills, show outcomes, and stay curious.

Mark Twain again, because it fits the spirit of this year, and because it is surprisingly good career advice:

“If you tell the truth, you don’t have to remember anything.”
Mark Twain

In career terms, if you build real skills, you do not have to perform. You do not have to bluff. You do not have to cosplay competence. The work speaks.

Back at the Paddo Inn, Felix raised his glass and said something like, “Here’s to building something this year.”

Not necessarily bigger. Not necessarily louder. Just sturdier.

In 2026, that might be the whole game.

The future is bright, let’s go there together!

Beers, Mates, and the Quiet Comeback of 2026

Written by Keiran Hathorn, Director, Big Wave Digital Recruitment

Big Wave Digital.
Born in Sydney. Built for digital.
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— Plato

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Fear wasting time.

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Big Wave Digital are experts in Digital Recruitment Sydney

At Big Wave Digital , Sydney’s leading digital, blockchain and technical recruitment agency, we have deep connections, experience and proven expertise, and the ability to achieve a win for all parties in the challenging recruiting process. We can connect to highly coveted digital and tech talent with the world’s best employers.

Keiran Hathorn is the CEO & Founder of Big Wave Digital. A Sydney based niche Digital, Blockchain & Technology recruitment company. Keiran leads a high performance, experienced recruitment team, assisting companies of all sizes secure the best talent.